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Way back in 1973, the US punted what at the time was the heaviest single payload into space. This payload was Skylab.
But it was launched too soon. Broken almost beyond functionality during the launch by Saturn V (on its final flight) and hastily repaired in orbit, this became just the first of a series of errors that would leave it abandoned after only 24 weeks of manned occupation. Reliant on the not yet completed STS program to keep boosting it into a higher orbit, Skylab was left to its fate to de-orbit and break up on re-entry. Again, things didn't go to plan and large sections dropped into the Indian Ocean (and onto parts of Australia) in 1979.
The year is 2018. NASA awards billion dollar contracts to Boeing and SpaceX to maintain NASAs interest and ability to utilise the International Space Station. This contract runs out in 2024.
The question I put to you ladies and gentlemen, users of this great forum of ours is thus:
Should NASA continue supporting the ISS?
Now, I'm gonna play double devil here and advocate both sides of the discussion, cos i can.
Yes
Firstly, yes, NASA should continue spending at least 225 million dollars a year on ISS services (that's not including flights either).
Why?
Simple. The ISS is currently the only place humanity has right now of its kind. There maybe other stations about, but they're owned by nations that dislike sharing the sandpit (yes China, I am looking at you) and the ISS is unique in that it is humankind doing humankind things for the betterment of humankind. Experiments being done there on the effects of zero gravity have changed the way space exploration is being conceived, from dietary requirements, exercise, recreation, psychological implications and resource management amongst many other things with a level of international backscratching that just isn't possible on the ground.
No
Absolutely not.
Why not?
In quick terms, NASAs concentration of resources onto the ISS program in future is going to harm on-going projects like the Moon and Mars manned missions. There is already beginning a shift in policy making for reversing the progress made in the past few years, and with the global economy getting more and more unstable thanks to Chinese Bat Flu, it may likely come down to a choice between ISS and Starship.
ISS is expensive, but the cost has already been out-laid. The station is built, it works and all it requires is crew change overs and resupply missions, which can be done extremely cheaply using the newly certified F9 rockets. This means NASA can stay in the 'space game', but doesn't do much else beyond the first few SLS/Artemis missions which are already costed and paid for already. This may lead to Congress choosing to sack further endeavours and staying with the status quo that has existed since 1973 with the cancellation of Apollo and the later cancellations of Ares and Constellation etc.
Cancelling the contracts to Boeing and SpaceX for ISS administration would free up around half a billion a year. Chuck that in the pot for the other projects, that could get pumped into finally going beyond LEO long term. ISS has played a huge part in the development of long term spaceflight and there are always more experiments to run, but at some point the experiments need to become practical applications. Bending that cash into the new lunar lander and the Gateway station, funding SpaceX development into Starship etc should see a more tangible outlay than spending it on an installation that is only technically a few hundred miles away.
What should be done with the ISS?
So you wanna get rid of the International Space Station? Easier said than done. It is the largest orbital installation ever created, 450t of aluminium moving at nearly 8 thousand metres per second, 250 miles above the Earth. Anyone thinks it's just gonna be a case of attaching a booster to the back (or firing its manoeuvring engines, if they have the DV) and pressing go like they do in SFS is deluding themselves.
Remember Skylab? That only weighed 70t when they eventually let it fall from the sky and it was probably no bigger than 2-3 of the modules on ISS in size. Some sections, especially the load bearing areas, aren't going to burn up on the way down. They're gonna strike the ground quite hard and with the same physical and political impact as the bits of Skylab raining down on Western Australia did in the late 70s.
So, just take it apart and de-orbit it in sections then. Easier said than done. It took over 1000 EVA hours to assemble using several robotic manipulators and an external self sustainable spacecraft (the Space Shuttle) to achieve it. I'm pretty sure Crew Dragon doesn't have facility for EVA, nor does it have its own manipulator arm. The Russians don't own anything capable of self sufficient long term orbital habitation with EVA facilities either.
So, conduct the EVA from the ISS. You mean, the ISS that they're taking apart? What sections are they going to cut off, that aren't going to be required by the crew living on the ISS to take apart the ISS? Only the Russian modules are self sufficient / automated enough so once you cut off the arrays or the modules or the radiators or the reaction control systems, then things are going to get very interesting on board the station very quickly.
The only spacecraft in the world right now capable of completing that mission is currently sat in museums across the US, cos NASA is forward thinking like that.
Another option or additional consideration comes if you throw Starship into the mix. Starship would be the only self sustainable, EVA capable spaceship available to the world in 2024 with the lift space to carry enough personnel and equipment you'd require to orbitally break up the ISS.
If there were any spare.
But not so fast there hombre. I'm gonna a few more spanners into your orbit.
Firstly, the ISS has been in space for 20 years. I'm gonna put it out there right now that some sections aren't gonna want to come apart and will need cutting. Cutting things in LEO is a huge problem with regards to debris. A fleck of paint, a small chunk of saw blade, a tiny piece of module, even a bloody rivet that spalls off the station is now another piece of orbital debris going around the Earth at 17,100mph.
Secondly, the ISS is not only one of the most complex machines ever devised, but also one of the most complex political arenas ever conceived. It's partially owned by no less than 18 different nations that fall into 5 distinct factions (Roscosmos, NASA, ESA, JAXA and CSA). Each module, laboratory and component onboard class as the sovereign territory of individual member nations (example, the Kibo Lab is technically part of Japan. This is so that any important discoveries and findings have a 'place' when it comes to international law and patent rights. If a Russian scientist using the European Laboratories discovered the cure for cancer on the ISS, technically the cure was discovered in Europe but that patent would be filed in Russia) and as such each Nation is ultimately responsible for its 'territory'.
If the US decided to sack ISS funding, it couldn't just do it's best Cartman impression, shout 'screw you guys, I'm going home' and leave the ISS to the rest of the world to sort out, because if the other nations disconnect the US modules (which is the vast proportion of the station) and let it fall onto Earth, the US is legally liable for whatever damage it causes on the way down and where it lands. Conversely, the Russians could just disconnect their own sections tomorrow and leave the ISS completely high and dry.
This means any orbital dismantling of the ISS is not just going to be an engineering challenge the likes of which has never been seen before, but also rival the division of Berlin at the end of WWII in terms of geo-political clusterfuck.
It gets even better if you want to bring some sections back for museum pieces. Remember, these are incredibly fragile aluminium cylinders that were transported up inside the belly of a much larger protective spacecraft. Even if you installed a protective heat shield and de-orbited it with some parachutes (a la Kerbal Space Program) and if it managed to not burn up on re-entry, landing the thing is going to break it.
SRBs were only dropped from a few thousand metres onto water using enormous parachutes, and despite being designed for such abuse, still regularly broke on landing.
ISS modules were never designed for that and would just crumple on hitting the ocean. They would need to be brought back down inside the belly of a much larger protective spacecraft. Pity, the only ones capable of doing so are sat in museums around the US. Cos NASA is forward thinking like that. Even better, they don't have the engines, cos the bastarding SLS project has stolen them.
What about Starship? Well, here is where shit gets fun. NASA support for ISS runs out in 2024. The ISS orbit degrades by 2km every single month. You have a very short window of a few years from the ISS being abandoned before it starts scraping the atmosphere. Inside that window from this second right now to say 2027 where it is too low to safely work on, you need to plan, fund, rehearse, and conduct whatever idea the international community come up with, before the ISS becomes a really large skidmark.
Will Starship be ready and readily available by then? Will anything be ready and available by then?
Anyway, here's the part where you add your 10p worth to the discussion.
Sources:
International Space Station legal framework
Who Owns the International Space Station (ISS)?
But it was launched too soon. Broken almost beyond functionality during the launch by Saturn V (on its final flight) and hastily repaired in orbit, this became just the first of a series of errors that would leave it abandoned after only 24 weeks of manned occupation. Reliant on the not yet completed STS program to keep boosting it into a higher orbit, Skylab was left to its fate to de-orbit and break up on re-entry. Again, things didn't go to plan and large sections dropped into the Indian Ocean (and onto parts of Australia) in 1979.
The year is 2018. NASA awards billion dollar contracts to Boeing and SpaceX to maintain NASAs interest and ability to utilise the International Space Station. This contract runs out in 2024.
The question I put to you ladies and gentlemen, users of this great forum of ours is thus:
- Should NASA continue supporting the ISS contract?
- If yes, why?
- if no, why not? And also in light of some facts I shall bring out shortly, what should be done with the ISS?
Should NASA continue supporting the ISS?
Now, I'm gonna play double devil here and advocate both sides of the discussion, cos i can.
Yes
Firstly, yes, NASA should continue spending at least 225 million dollars a year on ISS services (that's not including flights either).
Why?
Simple. The ISS is currently the only place humanity has right now of its kind. There maybe other stations about, but they're owned by nations that dislike sharing the sandpit (yes China, I am looking at you) and the ISS is unique in that it is humankind doing humankind things for the betterment of humankind. Experiments being done there on the effects of zero gravity have changed the way space exploration is being conceived, from dietary requirements, exercise, recreation, psychological implications and resource management amongst many other things with a level of international backscratching that just isn't possible on the ground.
No
Absolutely not.
Why not?
In quick terms, NASAs concentration of resources onto the ISS program in future is going to harm on-going projects like the Moon and Mars manned missions. There is already beginning a shift in policy making for reversing the progress made in the past few years, and with the global economy getting more and more unstable thanks to Chinese Bat Flu, it may likely come down to a choice between ISS and Starship.
ISS is expensive, but the cost has already been out-laid. The station is built, it works and all it requires is crew change overs and resupply missions, which can be done extremely cheaply using the newly certified F9 rockets. This means NASA can stay in the 'space game', but doesn't do much else beyond the first few SLS/Artemis missions which are already costed and paid for already. This may lead to Congress choosing to sack further endeavours and staying with the status quo that has existed since 1973 with the cancellation of Apollo and the later cancellations of Ares and Constellation etc.
Cancelling the contracts to Boeing and SpaceX for ISS administration would free up around half a billion a year. Chuck that in the pot for the other projects, that could get pumped into finally going beyond LEO long term. ISS has played a huge part in the development of long term spaceflight and there are always more experiments to run, but at some point the experiments need to become practical applications. Bending that cash into the new lunar lander and the Gateway station, funding SpaceX development into Starship etc should see a more tangible outlay than spending it on an installation that is only technically a few hundred miles away.
What should be done with the ISS?
So you wanna get rid of the International Space Station? Easier said than done. It is the largest orbital installation ever created, 450t of aluminium moving at nearly 8 thousand metres per second, 250 miles above the Earth. Anyone thinks it's just gonna be a case of attaching a booster to the back (or firing its manoeuvring engines, if they have the DV) and pressing go like they do in SFS is deluding themselves.
Remember Skylab? That only weighed 70t when they eventually let it fall from the sky and it was probably no bigger than 2-3 of the modules on ISS in size. Some sections, especially the load bearing areas, aren't going to burn up on the way down. They're gonna strike the ground quite hard and with the same physical and political impact as the bits of Skylab raining down on Western Australia did in the late 70s.
So, just take it apart and de-orbit it in sections then. Easier said than done. It took over 1000 EVA hours to assemble using several robotic manipulators and an external self sustainable spacecraft (the Space Shuttle) to achieve it. I'm pretty sure Crew Dragon doesn't have facility for EVA, nor does it have its own manipulator arm. The Russians don't own anything capable of self sufficient long term orbital habitation with EVA facilities either.
So, conduct the EVA from the ISS. You mean, the ISS that they're taking apart? What sections are they going to cut off, that aren't going to be required by the crew living on the ISS to take apart the ISS? Only the Russian modules are self sufficient / automated enough so once you cut off the arrays or the modules or the radiators or the reaction control systems, then things are going to get very interesting on board the station very quickly.
The only spacecraft in the world right now capable of completing that mission is currently sat in museums across the US, cos NASA is forward thinking like that.
Another option or additional consideration comes if you throw Starship into the mix. Starship would be the only self sustainable, EVA capable spaceship available to the world in 2024 with the lift space to carry enough personnel and equipment you'd require to orbitally break up the ISS.
If there were any spare.
But not so fast there hombre. I'm gonna a few more spanners into your orbit.
Firstly, the ISS has been in space for 20 years. I'm gonna put it out there right now that some sections aren't gonna want to come apart and will need cutting. Cutting things in LEO is a huge problem with regards to debris. A fleck of paint, a small chunk of saw blade, a tiny piece of module, even a bloody rivet that spalls off the station is now another piece of orbital debris going around the Earth at 17,100mph.
Secondly, the ISS is not only one of the most complex machines ever devised, but also one of the most complex political arenas ever conceived. It's partially owned by no less than 18 different nations that fall into 5 distinct factions (Roscosmos, NASA, ESA, JAXA and CSA). Each module, laboratory and component onboard class as the sovereign territory of individual member nations (example, the Kibo Lab is technically part of Japan. This is so that any important discoveries and findings have a 'place' when it comes to international law and patent rights. If a Russian scientist using the European Laboratories discovered the cure for cancer on the ISS, technically the cure was discovered in Europe but that patent would be filed in Russia) and as such each Nation is ultimately responsible for its 'territory'.
If the US decided to sack ISS funding, it couldn't just do it's best Cartman impression, shout 'screw you guys, I'm going home' and leave the ISS to the rest of the world to sort out, because if the other nations disconnect the US modules (which is the vast proportion of the station) and let it fall onto Earth, the US is legally liable for whatever damage it causes on the way down and where it lands. Conversely, the Russians could just disconnect their own sections tomorrow and leave the ISS completely high and dry.
This means any orbital dismantling of the ISS is not just going to be an engineering challenge the likes of which has never been seen before, but also rival the division of Berlin at the end of WWII in terms of geo-political clusterfuck.
It gets even better if you want to bring some sections back for museum pieces. Remember, these are incredibly fragile aluminium cylinders that were transported up inside the belly of a much larger protective spacecraft. Even if you installed a protective heat shield and de-orbited it with some parachutes (a la Kerbal Space Program) and if it managed to not burn up on re-entry, landing the thing is going to break it.
SRBs were only dropped from a few thousand metres onto water using enormous parachutes, and despite being designed for such abuse, still regularly broke on landing.
ISS modules were never designed for that and would just crumple on hitting the ocean. They would need to be brought back down inside the belly of a much larger protective spacecraft. Pity, the only ones capable of doing so are sat in museums around the US. Cos NASA is forward thinking like that. Even better, they don't have the engines, cos the bastarding SLS project has stolen them.
What about Starship? Well, here is where shit gets fun. NASA support for ISS runs out in 2024. The ISS orbit degrades by 2km every single month. You have a very short window of a few years from the ISS being abandoned before it starts scraping the atmosphere. Inside that window from this second right now to say 2027 where it is too low to safely work on, you need to plan, fund, rehearse, and conduct whatever idea the international community come up with, before the ISS becomes a really large skidmark.
Will Starship be ready and readily available by then? Will anything be ready and available by then?
Anyway, here's the part where you add your 10p worth to the discussion.
Sources:
International Space Station legal framework
Who Owns the International Space Station (ISS)?